interesting article at ESPN, they have a brand-new Basketball Power Index (BPI) for women's college basketball. which only give them a 37% chance of winning .
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22758426/uconn-favored-ncaa-tournament-bpi-likes-field
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">[h=2]2018 NCAA Tournament Projections[/h]
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[h=3]Methodology[/h]The Women's College Basketball Power Index is an ELO-based measure of team strength designed to predict team performance going forward. Entering the season it assesses each team's predicted strength based on a regressed version of performance in prior seasons. Once games start, each team's rating is adjusted up or down based on game results. Winning a game by more points and/or against a better opponent results in a larger adjustment.
Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve, derived from opponent's ELO ratings. Game predictions account for opponent strength and site and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season and tournament projections.
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22758426/uconn-favored-ncaa-tournament-bpi-likes-field
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">[h=2]2018 NCAA Tournament Projections[/h]
| TEAM | SEED | 2ND ROUND | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL 4 | NC | CHAMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | 1 | 98% | 93% | 85% | 71% | 51% | 37% |
| Notre Dame | 1 | 98% | 93% | 79% | 59% | 28% | 16% |
| Baylor | 2 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
| Mississippi State | 1 | 99% | 93% | 75% | 54% | 28% | 11% |
| Louisville | 1 | 93% | 84% | 68% | 34% | 20% | 8% |
| South Carolina | 2 | 96% | 84% | 61% | 18% | 8% | 4% |
| Oregon | 2 | 98% | 80% | 55% | 21% | 6% | 2% |
| Texas | 2 | 87% | 70% | 43% | 19% | 7% | 2% |
| UCLA | 3 | 88% | 66% | 37% | 14% | 5% | 1% |
| Ohio State | 3 | 83% | 58% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| Florida State | 3 | 82% | 58% | 22% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| DePaul | 5 | 75% | 49% | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Tennessee | 3 | 86% | 49% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Oregon State | 6 | 72% | 41% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Stanford | 4 | 65% | 45% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Maryland | 5 | 63% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Green Bay | 7 | 68% | 14% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| NC State | 4 | 60% | 33% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Georgia | 4 | 66% | 32% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Duke | 5 | 60% | 34% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 11 | 61% | 25% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Florida | 6 | 66% | 25% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa | 6 | 64% | 22% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Arizona State | 7 | 59% | 16% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Gonzaga | 13 | 35% | 18% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marquette | 8 | 61% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Quinnipiac | 9 | 52% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 11 | 34% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Elon | 13 | 40% | 17% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 65% | 30% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Dayton | 9 | 39% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Mercer | 13 | 34% | 15% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami | 8 | 48% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri | 5 | 55% | 24% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| American | 14 | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Little Rock | 14 | 18% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Belmont | 12 | 40% | 19% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boise State | 16 | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| California | 7 | 57% | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Creighton | 11 | 36% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CSU Northridge | 16 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Drake | 13 | 35% | 11% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| George Washington | 14 | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Grambling | 15 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liberty | 14 | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LSU | 6 | 39% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Maine | 15 | 13% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Michigan | 7 | 65% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 32% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Carolina A&T | 15 | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nebraska | 10 | 41% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nicholls | 16 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Colorado | 10 | 35% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Oklahoma | 12 | 25% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 41% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Princeton | 12 | 37% | 14% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Seattle | 15 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Dakota State | 8 | 63% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| St. Francis (PA) | 16 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Syracuse | 8 | 59% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Villanova | 9 | 37% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Virginia | 10 | 43% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Kentucky | 11 | 28% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 12 | 45% | 14% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
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[h=3]Methodology[/h]The Women's College Basketball Power Index is an ELO-based measure of team strength designed to predict team performance going forward. Entering the season it assesses each team's predicted strength based on a regressed version of performance in prior seasons. Once games start, each team's rating is adjusted up or down based on game results. Winning a game by more points and/or against a better opponent results in a larger adjustment.
Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve, derived from opponent's ELO ratings. Game predictions account for opponent strength and site and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season and tournament projections.
I hate Connecticut with a passion. However I said it last year when I told people they would not win the title as the team was their worst in quite some time. I made it clear that a team better jump up and win it now (last season) as the next year they are about as a close to a lock to win with what they had coming in.
The only team that can beat them is Baylor as they know they can match them talent for talent and Coach Mulkey fears no one. Louisiville's coach is one of the best in the business and no one can out coach him in terms of X's & O's but I don't think they have enough pieces to win but they would be competitive.
The only team that can beat them is Baylor as they know they can match them talent for talent and Coach Mulkey fears no one. Louisiville's coach is one of the best in the business and no one can out coach him in terms of X's & O's but I don't think they have enough pieces to win but they would be competitive.
Sweated that 71 percent chance to make the final 4...
[h=1]Connecticut women roll past South Carolina to reach 11th consecutive Final Four[/h]<aside class="story-share-tools" style="margin-left: 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Helvetica, Symbol, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">
</aside>22 seconds ago
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Connecticut coach Geno Auriemma and the Huskies are headed back to a familiar spot — the Final Four.
[h=1]Connecticut women roll past South Carolina to reach 11th consecutive Final Four[/h]<aside class="story-share-tools" style="margin-left: 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Helvetica, Symbol, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">
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ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Connecticut coach Geno Auriemma and the Huskies are headed back to a familiar spot — the Final Four.
